📌 Introduction
For the week starting June 9, 2025, the Nasdaq-100 (US100/NDX) remains in focus as it reacts to a blend of strong economic data, tech-heavy earnings, central-bank cues, and lingering trade tensions. Sitting around 21,700–21,800, the index’s near-term trajectory will be guided by macro, sentiment, and technical dynamics.
1. 🌍 Macro & Fundamental Context
A. U.S. Economic Data & Fed Outlook
- May’s jobs report surprised to the upside with +139K nonfarm payrolls, while unemployment held steady at 4.2%. This supports the case for resilient growth but also strengthens the Fed’s resolve—tempering expectations of imminent rate cuts.
- The upcoming CPI release remains a key pivot point. With inflation still sticky, a hot report could reinforce “higher-for-longer” Fed messaging.
B. U.S.–China Trade & Global Growth
- Renewed trade talks—particularly U.S.–China negotiations—have buoyed risk sentiment.
- However, ongoing tariff threats continue to cloud forecasts, and global growth concerns remain, especially around sluggish PMIs in China.
2. 💹 Market Sentiment & Risk Appetite
- Nasdaq led all major indices last week, climbing ~2.2%, showing renewed risk-on posture.
- Tech sector strength was broad-based: Nvidia (+2.8%) reclaimed the title of the most valuable U.S. company, while Broadcom (+3.3%) also surged.
- IPO and small-cap rallies, including the Russell 2000’s +1.7% weekly gain, indicate a comprehensive appetite for growth.
3. 🧠 Central Bank & Earnings Narrative
- Strong earnings—particularly from AI and mega-cap names—remain the core engine moving Nasdaq higher.
- As the Fed maintains a cautious stance on rate cuts, earnings strength becomes critical to sustain gains, with economic data and yields moderating volatility.
4. 📈 Technical Analysis (Multi-Timeframe)
Weekly Chart Analysis
- Longer-term trend remains bullish. The Nasdaq closed above its 200-day SMA last week—confirming renewed upside bias.
- Major resistance: ~22,000. Multiple weekly rejections around this zone suggest consolidation unless a breakout occurs.
- Key support: 21,000 – 21,200 band. This level marks both structural and channel support, critical for sustaining bullish positioning.
Daily / Intraweek Perspective
- The index bounced strongly from ~21,300 earlier in the week.
- Mid-week pivot levels (pivot point ~21,146.7) and oscillators are stabilizing around neutral (stochastic ~30%, RSI ~50%).
Technical Overview Table
| Timeframe | Trend | Key Support | Key Resistance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | Uptrend intact | 21,000 – 21,200 | 22,000 |
| Daily | Pullback/upside | 21,300 | 21,800 |
| Intraday | Neutral/bullish | 21,146 (pivot) | 21,750 |
5. 🎯 Trading Setups & Risk Management
A. Buy-the-Dip Strategy
- Entry Zone: 21,300–21,400 (daily support zone)
- Stop-Loss: Below 21,146 pivot or support (~21,100)
- Targets: Partial at 21,800 and full at 22,000+ if momentum holds
B. Breakout Play
- Trigger: Weekly close above 22,000
- Stop-Loss: Under breakout zone (~21,900)
- Targets: Extend to 22,300–22,500, projecting from prior range width
C. Heightened Caution
- If CPI prints stronger-than-expected inflation or trade agreements falter, markets could shift risk-off. In that scenario, watch for breakdown below 21,000—risking deeper pullback.
6. 🔍 Weekly Outlook
Base Case:
Nasdaq trades between 21,300–21,800, with momentum slow but intact as markets digest Fed messaging and earnings flow.
Bull Case:
Success above 21,800–22,000 ignites an extended rally, driven by positive earnings and a risk-positive climate. Could see run toward 22,300–22,500 zone.
Bear Case:
Hot CPI or negative macro headlines prompt pullback below 21,300—potentially testing 21,000 support.
7. 📣 Summary & Action Plan
- The Nasdaq 100 remains in a bullish posture, with strong earnings and risk-on sentiment driving gains.
- Key levels to watch:
🔹 Support: 21,300–21,200
🔹 Resistance: 21,800–22,000
Trade ideas:
- Fundamental: Buy dips near support
- Aggressive: Trade breakouts above resistance
- Defensive: Tight stops around key technical levels if macro shocks hit
🧭 TL;DR
“Nasdaq is maintaining its bullish base. Look for dips at ~21,300 and watch 22,000 for a breakout; manage risk carefully around macro data this week.”
