Gold (XAUUSD) continues to attract attention as a safe-haven asset in uncertain markets. As we step into the week of June 10–14, 2025, gold remains near all-time highs, driven by geopolitical tension, investor sentiment, and dollar weakness. In this post, we break down gold’s current outlook using a top-down analysis — from the monthly chart to the intraday timeframes — to help traders find high-probability setups.
🌍 Fundamentals Snapshot
- Safe-haven flow: Global investors are treating gold as a replacement for traditional risk-free assets like Treasurys and USD amid growing global conflict.
- Inflation & rate sentiment: Although inflation is cooling, uncertainty over Fed policy continues, keeping gold attractive.
- Market mood: Traders are shifting toward hard assets, supporting continued bullish bias on gold.
🕰 Top-Down Technical Analysis
🗓 Monthly Timeframe
- Structure: Strong bullish trend
- Key Support: $3,200–$3,250
- Resistance: Uncharted territory above $3,450
- Comment: Gold is printing higher highs and higher lows with no signs of long-term exhaustion.
📅 Weekly Chart
- Current Price: ~$3,433
- Bias: Bullish
- Support Zones: $3,380 (previous breakout), $3,340 (last swing low)
- Resistance Levels: $3,447, $3,500 (psychological round number)
- Observation: Gold has printed a clean bullish candle after a minor consolidation, indicating a continuation pattern.
📉 Daily Chart
- Trend: Uptrend with strong momentum
- Confluence Levels:
- $3,400: Previous intraday breakout zone
- $3,380: Prior resistance turned support
- Indicators:
- RSI hovering near 70 (bullish strength)
- Above 50-day and 200-day moving averages
- Outlook: Price is climbing with volume. Expect continuation unless a sharp reversal breaks below $3,380.
⏱ 4-Hour (H4) Chart
- Setup: Price is consolidating in a bullish flag above $3,400
- Buy Zone: $3,380–$3,400 (look for bullish candles)
- Breakout Zone: Above $3,447 = momentum buy
- Trade Idea:
- Wait for a clean retest of $3,400 and bullish confirmation
- Alternatively, breakout above $3,447 toward $3,500–$3,550
⏱ M15/M30 (Intraday Levels)
- Market Behavior: Trend-to-range transition during Asia/London open, volatility increases post-US open.
- Scalp Opportunities:
- Buy dips near $3,400–$3,410 with 15-min confirmation
- Quick scalps on breakout retest above $3,447
🎯 Weekly Trade Plan
| Trade Type | Direction | Entry Zone | Target Range | Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swing Buy | Bullish | $3,380–$3,400 | $3,500–$3,550 | $3,340 |
| Breakout Momentum | Bullish | Above $3,447 | $3,500–$3,560 | $3,420 |
| Pullback Scalps | Bullish | $3,400 (retest) | $3,430–$3,450 | Below $3,385 |
📌 Key Takeaways
- Trend: All major timeframes remain bullish. Pullbacks are opportunities, not reversals.
- Level to Watch: $3,447 is a major resistance. A clean break above it could accelerate buying.
- Market Sentiment: Still driven by macro fear and global instability, supporting gold’s uptrend.
- Caution: Don’t chase; wait for break-and-retest or clear price action near key zones.
🔔 Pro Tips for Traders
- Always wait for confirmation candles (especially on the 4H or Daily) before jumping in.
- If price breaks above $3,447 but quickly returns inside the range, consider it a liquidity trap.
- Use a risk-reward of minimum 1:2 to protect capital during volatility.
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