📌 Overview
As we begin the week of June 9, 2025, GBP/USD—commonly referred to as “Cable”—is in a technically critical zone. Following mixed macroeconomic data from both the UK and the US, traders are closely watching for directional cues.
With the pair trading around the 1.2710–1.2750 zone, we dive deep using a top-down analysis approach—starting from the weekly and narrowing to the 4-hour timeframe—to uncover key levels, sentiment, and possible trade scenarios.
1. 🌍 Fundamental Context
🇺🇸 U.S. Dollar Fundamentals
- Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) beat expectations last Friday with +139K jobs, though the unemployment rate remained elevated at 4.2%.
- The Federal Reserve continues its cautious tone, likely maintaining interest rates at current levels for longer due to sticky inflation.
- This hawkish Fed stance has supported the USD and capped upside moves in GBP/USD.
🇬🇧 UK Economic Factors
- The Bank of England (BoE) faces a tricky balancing act. While inflation has been cooling, wage growth and services inflation remain stubborn.
- The BoE is expected to cut rates cautiously, but not as aggressively as the Fed, which could give GBP some relative strength.
- UK GDP growth remains tepid, but not recessionary—supporting a slow and steady recovery narrative.
2. 💹 Sentiment Snapshot
- Speculative positioning shows mixed sentiment. While some large traders hold net long GBP positions, institutional flows suggest caution.
- The Dollar Index (DXY) hovers near a resistance zone, meaning the USD may be due for a short-term pullback, favoring GBP/USD buyers.
3. 🧠 Technical Analysis – Multi-Timeframe Breakdown
🔎 A. Weekly Chart (Macro View)
Trend: Sideways to bullish
Last Weekly Close: ~1.2735
Momentum: RSI ~54, showing moderate strength
Key Observations:
- GBP/USD has been stuck in a range between 1.26 and 1.28 for the last 5 weeks.
- The pair has formed a series of higher lows since March, supporting a potential bullish breakout scenario.
- Price is holding above the 50-week EMA, indicating bullish bias in the medium term.
- A breakout above 1.2800 may trigger a run toward the 1.30 psychological level.
Weekly Key Levels:
| Level Type | Price Area |
|---|---|
| Resistance | 1.2800–1.2840 |
| Major Support | 1.2580–1.2620 |
| Target (Bullish) | 1.3000 |
| Invalid Below | 1.2500 |
🔎 B. Daily Chart (Swing View)
Trend: Consolidation with upside bias
Structure: Range with bullish coil
Indicators:
- RSI holding above 50
- 20 & 50 EMAs converging near 1.2700, acting as dynamic support
- MACD showing a mild bullish crossover
Analysis:
- The daily chart reveals a tight consolidation range, building energy for a breakout.
- Bulls are defending the 1.2700 level, which has acted as a pivot multiple times.
- Watch for a daily candle close above 1.2800 as a bullish breakout confirmation.
Bullish Scenario:
- Entry: Above 1.2810
- Stop: Below 1.2700
- Target 1: 1.2920
- Target 2: 1.3000
Bearish Breakdown:
- Entry: Below 1.2620
- Stop: Above 1.2725
- Target 1: 1.2500
- Target 2: 1.2400
🔎 C. H4 Chart (Short-Term Precision)
Trend: Neutral to bullish
Current Price: ~1.2730
Pattern: Potential inverse head and shoulders forming
Indicators:
- VWAP aligned with price at 1.2720
- RSI bouncing from 40–50 zone
Short-Term Outlook:
- A break above 1.2760 (neckline) would confirm the inverse H&S pattern.
- Immediate support sits at 1.2700–1.2710, with more aggressive longs looking for entries here with tight stops.
4. 🎯 Trade Plan & Scenarios
✳️ Conservative Bullish Plan
- Buy on Breakout Above: 1.2800
- Stop Loss: 1.2720
- Take Profit 1: 1.2900
- Take Profit 2: 1.3000
- R/R Ratio: ~1:2.5 or higher
✳️ Aggressive Buy-the-Dip Strategy
- Entry Zone: 1.2700–1.2720
- Stop Loss: Below 1.2670
- Target: 1.2800–1.2900
- Justification: Confluence of EMAs, VWAP, trendline, and psychological level support
❌ Bearish Setup (if support fails)
- Sell Below: 1.2620 (daily structure break)
- Stop Loss: 1.2700
- Target: 1.2500
- Catalyst: Strong US CPI or surprise Fed hawkishness
5. 📰 News & Data to Watch This Week
🔻 High Impact Events
| Date | Event | Impact Level |
|---|---|---|
| June 12 | US CPI (May) | 🔥🔥🔥 |
| June 13 | UK GDP (April) | 🔥🔥 |
| June 14 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 🔥🔥🔥 |
Notes:
- A hot CPI print will boost USD and pressure GBP/USD.
- A dovish Fed could weaken the dollar and fuel bullish momentum in the pair.
- UK GDP surprise could influence BoE expectations and strengthen GBP.
6. 🧭 Weekly Summary & Outlook
| Factor | Directional Bias |
|---|---|
| Technical Trend | Bullish (above 1.2700) |
| Momentum Indicators | Mixed/Moderately Bullish |
| Fundamentals | Neutral (BoE cautious, Fed hawkish) |
| News Risk | High (CPI, Fed, GDP) |
✅ Most Probable Path This Week:
GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias above 1.2700, but a confirmed break above 1.2800 is needed to continue higher toward 1.30. Traders should stay nimble around macro events.
📝 Final Thoughts for Traders
- The key battleground for GBP/USD this week is between 1.2700 and 1.2800.
- With strong news flow and macro uncertainty, risk management is critical.
- This is a week where patient setups and clean breakouts will likely outperform overactive scalping.
